Indian stock markets opened higher as Nifty 50 nears 24,600; lower inflation boosts sentiment. Key stock picks include Paytm, M&M, MCX.

Indian Stock Market Today: Nifty 50, Sensex Open Higher on Cooling Inflation; Paytm, M&M, MCX in Focus

The Indian equity markets kicked off Wednesday’s trading session on a positive note as Nifty 50 and Sensex climbed higher, driven by optimism from India’s lowest retail inflation in eight years and supportive global cues.

As of 10:43 AM IST on 13 August 2025, the Nifty 50 was up 0.35% at 24,572.85, while the BSE Sensex rose 0.22% to 80,415.06. Investor confidence was bolstered by a combination of lower consumer price index (CPI) figures, expectations of accommodative monetary policy, and signs of stability in U.S. inflation data.

Cooling Inflation Gives Bulls a Boost

India’s retail inflation rate fell to just 1.55% in July 2025, well below the Reserve Bank of India’s 2%–6% tolerance range. The drop was mainly due to easing food prices, which had previously been a major driver of headline inflation.

Market analysts say this steep decline gives the RBI more room to maintain a dovish policy stance, potentially supporting both equity and bond markets in the short term.

“Lower CPI numbers are a direct tailwind for equities because they reduce the probability of near-term rate hikes and help improve corporate earnings visibility,” noted Sagar Doshi, Senior Vice President – Research at Nuvama Professional Clients Group.

Key Technical Levels for Nifty 50 & Bank Nifty

• Nifty 50: Facing resistance at the 24,700–24,750 zone, aligned with a downward trendline. A closing above 24,800 could trigger a fresh bullish wave, while downside support lies at 24,200, with the 200-DMA near 24,000 acting as a critical floor.
• Bank Nifty: Currently following a sell-on-rise pattern. A breakout above 55,800 on a closing basis would suggest a strong upside trend, while 54,000–54,300 remains the next major support zone.

Global Market Cues – U.S.-Russia Talks, Soft U.S. Data, Japan Bonds Sell-off

• U.S.-Russia Meeting: Later this week, U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. While expectations for a quick Ukraine conflict resolution are low, markets are monitoring geopolitical headlines for potential volatility.
• U.S. Inflation: Mild U.S. CPI data has strengthened bets for a September Federal Reserve rate cut, helping global equities and commodities.
• Japan Bonds: A weak five-year Japanese government bond auction triggered a sell-off, with yields hitting multi-year highs. This underscores global bond market fragility, which can indirectly impact emerging market flows.

Sector Snapshot – Autos, IT, Commodities in Focus

• Auto Sector: M&M is leading gains, trading near all-time highs after fully recovering losses from the past year. A breakout above ₹3,280 could accelerate gains.
• IT Sector: Stable but cautious as investors await U.S. tech earnings and commentary on AI investments.
• Commodities: MCX shares surged after breaking out from consolidation, with analysts expecting a quick move towards all-time highs.

Stock Picks for Wednesday – Analyst Recommendations

1. Paytm (One 97 Communications Ltd)

• LCP: ₹1,120
• Stop Loss: ₹1,080
• Target: ₹1,280
• Rationale: Near 3-year highs, momentum boosted by strong Q1 results and RBI approval for Paytm Payments Services to operate as an online payment aggregator.

2. Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M)

• LCP: ₹3,236
• Stop Loss: ₹3,115
• Target: ₹3,550
• Rationale: Strong resilience in the auto sector, constructive chart patterns, and proximity to all-time highs.

3. Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX)

• LCP: ₹8,151
• Stop Loss: ₹7,820
• Target: ₹8,800
• Rationale: Breakout from consolidation with strong volumes, positive trend continuation expected.

H2: Gold Prices Edge Higher on Weak Dollar

• Spot Gold: $3,351.46/oz (+0.2%)
• U.S. Gold Futures: $3,399.60/oz (flat)
• Domestic MCX Gold (Oct Contract): ₹1,00,236 per 10g (+0.08%)

Weak U.S. inflation data and a softer dollar have supported gold, though upside may be capped until geopolitical uncertainties resurface.

Sensex 1 Lakh by Independence Day 2026?

Reaching 1,00,000 on the Sensex would require a 25% rally in one year from current levels (~80,235). Morgan Stanley’s bull case scenario sees this achievable by June 2026, driven by earnings growth, policy reforms, and FII inflows.

However, risks include:

• Geopolitical flare-ups
• Global bond market instability
• Potential U.S. recession

Market Outlook – Short-Term vs Medium-Term

• Short-Term: Expect volatility around global event headlines and technical resistance zones.
• Medium-Term: Earnings upgrades, lower inflation, and strong domestic demand could keep Indian equities in an uptrend.

Investor Takeaways

1. Watch 24,800 on Nifty 50 and 55,800 on Bank Nifty for confirmation of a bullish breakout.
2. Lower inflation is a tailwind but global uncertainty remains a risk.
3. Stock-specific action (Paytm, M&M, MCX) could outperform indices in the near term.
4. Keep an eye on RBI policy commentary and U.S.-Russia talks later this week.