Nifty 50, Sensex gain as India’s retail inflation hits 8-year low. Analysts bullish on Paytm, M&M, MCX. Global cues, sector trends, and Sensex 1 lakh outlook.

Indian Stock Market Today: Nifty 50, Sensex Rise on Cooling Inflation; Paytm, M&M, MCX in Focus

The Indian stock market opened Wednesday’s session on a bullish note, with benchmark indices Nifty 50 and Sensex edging higher as investor sentiment turned upbeat on the back of India’s lowest retail inflation in over eight years.

At 09:15 AM IST on 13 August 2025, the Nifty 50 was trading around 24,572.85, up 0.35%, while the BSE Sensex gained 0.22% to reach 80,415.06.

The rally comes amid lower consumer price index (CPI) figures, favorable global cues, and optimism that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will maintain an accommodative stance in its upcoming policy meeting.

Cooling Inflation Strengthens Market Sentiment

India’s retail inflation eased to just 1.55% in July 2025, a sharp drop from 4.37% in June, marking the lowest reading since 2017. The primary driver was a fall in food inflation, with vegetable prices cooling significantly.

For equity markets, such a drastic fall in inflation is significant:

• Policy Implication: The RBI may keep rates steady or even hint at future cuts.
• Corporate Impact: Lower inflation reduces input costs, potentially boosting corporate margins.
• Investor Mood: Softer prices improve consumer spending power, aiding demand-driven sectors.

Sagar Doshi, SVP – Research at Nuvama, said:

“Lower CPI numbers are a direct tailwind for equities. They reduce the probability of rate hikes and improve earnings visibility for the next few quarters.”

Key Technical Levels – Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty

Nifty 50:

• Resistance: 24,700–24,750 (downward trendline)
• Breakout Trigger: Closing above 24,800 could accelerate bullish momentum.
• Support: 24,200 immediate; 200-DMA near 24,000 is crucial.

Bank Nifty:

• Resistance: 55,800 (closing basis)
• Support: 54,000–54,300 zone
• Trend remains sell-on-rise until a confirmed breakout.

Global Cues Driving Market Optimism

• U.S.-Russia Meeting: Scheduled in Alaska later this week; although a quick Ukraine resolution is unlikely, any easing in tensions could lift risk sentiment.
• U.S. Inflation: July CPI data was softer than expected, boosting expectations of a September Fed rate cut.
• Japan Bonds: A weak 5-year JGB auction triggered a bond sell-off, lifting yields and prompting global investors to re-evaluate fixed-income positions.

Sector Performance Overview

Autos – Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) Leading

M&M has recovered all losses from the past year and is trading close to record highs. A breakout above ₹3,280 could open the path to ₹3,550.

Commodities – MCX on Breakout Mode

Multi Commodity Exchange shares have surged post-consolidation, supported by strong trading volumes. Analysts see potential for the stock to hit ₹8,800.

Technology – Steady with Global Focus

IT stocks are stable, awaiting cues from U.S. tech earnings and AI-related spending trends.

Analyst Stock Recommendations for 13 August 2025

1. Paytm (One 97 Communications)

• Last Close: ₹1,120
• Target: ₹1,280
• Stop Loss: ₹1,080
• View: Bullish on strong earnings and regulatory clearance for payment services.

2. Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M)

• Last Close: ₹3,236
• Target: ₹3,550
• Stop Loss: ₹3,115
• View: Auto demand recovery and technical strength support upside.

3. MCX

• Last Close: ₹8,151
• Target: ₹8,800
• Stop Loss: ₹7,820
• View: Breakout rally could test all-time highs.

Gold Prices – Slight Gains on Weak Dollar

• Spot Gold: $3,351.46/oz (+0.2%)
• US Gold Futures: $3,399.60/oz (flat)
• MCX Gold Oct Contract: ₹1,00,236 per 10g (+0.08%)

Sensex 1 Lakh by 2026 – Is It Possible?

For Sensex to hit 1,00,000 by Independence Day 2026, it needs a 25% rally within 12 months.
Morgan Stanley’s bullish scenario sees this achievable by June 2026 under strong earnings growth and policy reforms.

Risks to the Rally

• Geopolitical tensions
• Global bond market instability
• Potential U.S. recession
• Crude oil price spikes

Investor Strategy Going Forward

1. Watch key resistance levels for breakout confirmation.
2. Focus on stock-specific trades rather than index chasing.
3. Stay updated on RBI commentary post-inflation data.
4. Use trailing stop losses to lock in profits in volatile sectors.

Conclusion

India’s stock market is starting the day with a bullish bias, fueled by record-low inflation and positive global sentiment. While risks remain, sector strength in autos, commodities, and select financials suggests that traders and investors have multiple opportunities for both short-term gains and medium-term positioning.