India Maintains 2 Million BPD Russian Oil Imports in August Despite Tariff Tensions

India’s Russian oil imports hit 2 million barrels per day in August, maintaining a 38% share of crude intake. Refiners eye diversification but say “business as usual” until sanctions change.

India Holds Steady on Russian Oil Imports in August — Business as Usual Amid Global Tensions

New Delhi, August 15, 2025 — In a clear signal that economic logic is still outweighing geopolitical turbulence, India’s crude oil imports from Russia have climbed to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, up from 1.6 million bpd in July. This accounts for 38% of total crude imports in the first half of the month, according to global data provider Kpler.

The gains in Russian supply have come largely at the expense of Iraq and Saudi Arabia, whose shipments dropped to 730,000 bpd and 526,000 bpd respectively. The United States, despite ongoing tariff tensions between Washington and New Delhi, ranked as India’s fifth-largest supplier at 264,000 bpd.

Kpler’s lead research analyst Sumit Ritolia noted that the resilience in Russian crude imports was largely due to earlier procurement decisions — cargoes locked in during June and early July, before U.S. President Donald Trump’s late-July 25% tariff hike on Indian goods. “The real test will come in late September and October,” Ritolia said, hinting at potential shifts in sourcing if tariffs or payment routes disrupt trade flows.

Government Stance: Neutral and Unchanged
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) chairman Arvinder Singh Sahney stressed that there has been no directive from the government to either curb or boost Russian imports, despite diplomatic noise. “Neither are we being told to buy nor told not to buy,” Sahney told reporters. “Purchases are driven purely by economics.”

Similarly, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) said its share of Russian crude had fallen slightly last month due to narrower discounts — from $40 per barrel in early 2023 to just $1.5 per barrel in July. Encouragingly for refiners, August has seen discounts rise to over $2 per barrel.

BPCL’s finance director Vetsa Ramakrishna Gupta stated that, absent new sanctions, Russian oil will continue to make up 30–35% of their annual imports.

From Sanctions to Strategy
Before the Ukraine war in 2022, Russian oil made up less than 0.2% of India’s crude basket. That share has since surged to 35–40%, thanks to steep post-war discounts. Yet refiners are increasingly looking at energy security and logistical risk management — not just margin maximisation.

While shipments from the U.S., West Africa, and Latin America are being explored, Ritolia emphasised this is about flexibility, not replacement. “Until there’s a clear policy change or sustained trade shift, Russian flows remain embedded in India’s supply mix,” he said.

Outlook: The Road Ahead
In the near term, August and September cargoes are unlikely to see major disruption. But from Q4 2025 onwards, analysts anticipate:

• Scenario 1: If U.S. tariffs escalate and payment channels tighten, Indian refiners may boost alternative sourcing from Africa, Latin America, and Middle East, reducing Russian share to 25–28%.
• Scenario 2: If discounts on Russian crude remain attractive and sanctions stay unchanged, volumes could stabilise around 2 million bpd through early 2026.
• Scenario 3: A sudden geopolitical shock — such as new EU-led shipping sanctions — could rapidly rewire India’s crude mix, pushing refiners into costly spot market buys.

For now, Sahney’s words sum up the industry’s position: “It’s business as usual — unless the rules change.”