Indian Stock Market Weekly Analysis: Can the Nifty Sustain Its Momentum?

The Indian stock market managed to snap a six-week losing streak as the Nifty 50 and Sensex closed the week with gains of nearly 1%. This rebound came after extreme oversold conditions and positive global cues lifted investor sentiment. However, the relief rally was tempered by persistent selling pressure from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), who offloaded nearly ₹10,000 crore in the cash market. On the other hand, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) stepped in with strong buying worth ₹19,000 crore, providing much-needed support.

Sectorally, pharma and auto stocks led the recovery, while FMCG stocks underperformed. Broader market participation was visible, signaling improving market breadth. Yet, analysts caution that the Nifty remains range-bound, and decisive breakouts are needed for a clear bullish trend.

Nifty 50 Technical Outlook

According to Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, the Nifty has entered a consolidation phase, currently trading between 24,300 and 24,650. The broader range remains 24,000 to 24,800. Only a breakout beyond these levels could determine the next big move.

• Immediate resistance: 24,650
• Support zone: 24,300
• Broader range: 24,000 – 24,800

“A bullish or bearish trend can be assumed on the breakage of either side of this range. If the rally extends, the Nifty could test 24,800 levels,” says Bagadia.

Key Stock Recommendations for the Week

Bagadia emphasizes a stock-specific approach rather than aggressive index bets. He recommends three stocks based on strong technical setups: Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (MSIL), Bajaj Finserv, and Power Grid Corporation of India.

1. Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (MSIL)

• Current Price: ₹12,936
• Target Price: ₹14,300
• Stop Loss: ₹12,300

Analysis: Maruti Suzuki is consolidating near its highs and shows signs of an impending breakout. Sustaining above ₹13,000 will confirm strength. The stock trades above all key EMAs with an RSI of 63.90, indicating robust momentum.

Future Outlook: With strong auto sector demand, new model launches, and rising domestic sales, Maruti is well-positioned for long-term growth. If macroeconomic conditions remain supportive, the stock could test ₹15,000+ levels over the next 6–12 months.

2. Bajaj Finserv

• Current Price: ₹1,925.10
• Target Price: ₹2,130
• Stop Loss: ₹1,830

Analysis: After retracement, Bajaj Finserv has bounced from its long-term EMA and is showing early reversal signs. A move above ₹1,980 could confirm bullish continuation. The RSI at 39.84 suggests the stock is recovering from oversold conditions.

Future Outlook: With strong financial services penetration and diversification, Bajaj Finserv is poised to benefit from India’s rising credit demand. A sustained uptrend could push the stock toward ₹2,200–₹2,250 levels by year-end.

3. Power Grid Corporation of India

• Current Price: ₹288.70
• Target Price: ₹320–325
• Stop Loss: ₹275

Analysis: The stock is forming an Ascending Triangle pattern, suggesting accumulation before a breakout. Sustaining above ₹300 would confirm bullish strength. The RSI at 45.75 supports gradual upward momentum.

Future Outlook: With government emphasis on infrastructure and renewable energy integration, Power Grid remains a steady performer. If demand for transmission capacity rises, the stock could test ₹350+ levels in 2025.

FII vs DII Battle: Who Will Dominate?

The divergence between FIIs and DIIs continues to shape market momentum:

• FIIs sold nearly ₹10,000 crore last week due to global uncertainty and rising US yields.
• DIIs absorbed the pressure with ₹19,000 crore worth of buying, driven by confidence in domestic growth.

This tug-of-war highlights that India’s long-term fundamentals remain strong, but global volatility continues to drive short-term swings.

Macro Triggers to Watch Next Week

1. Global Cues: US Fed commentary, crude oil price movements, and global bond yields.
2. Domestic Indicators: Inflation data, GST collection trends, and corporate earnings.
3. FII Activity: Any reversal in FII flows could significantly impact short-term sentiment.

Broader Market Outlook: What to Expect in 2025

Looking beyond the short-term range, multiple factors suggest cautious optimism for Indian equities:

• GDP Growth: India is expected to remain the fastest-growing large economy, with FY26 GDP growth projected above 6.5%.
• Corporate Earnings: Strong Q1 earnings in autos, banking, and infrastructure suggest continued resilience.
• Sector Rotation: Pharma, auto, and PSU sectors could lead gains, while FMCG may lag in the near term.
• Technical Picture: If Nifty sustains above 25,000, we could see new record highs in 2025. However, a break below 24,000 could trigger a deeper correction toward 23,500.

Future Scenarios

Bullish Case

• Nifty breaks 24,800 and sustains above 25,000.
• FIIs return with buying support.
• Corporate earnings growth accelerates.
• Sectors like autos, banks, and infrastructure lead the rally.

Target: Nifty 26,000–26,500 by Q4 2025.

Bearish Case

• Nifty breaks below 24,000.
• FII selling intensifies due to global headwinds.
• Inflationary pressures and rate hikes weigh on valuations.

Target: Nifty may test 23,500–23,200 levels.

Neutral/Consolidation Case

• Nifty trades between 24,000–25,000.
• Sector-specific rallies dominate while index remains range-bound.

Target: Sideways movement with stock-specific opportunities.

FAQs on Indian Stock Market Outlook

Q1: Should I buy Maruti Suzuki now?

Yes, technicals suggest a bullish breakout above ₹13,000. With auto demand rising, Maruti looks attractive for medium-term investors.

Q2: Is Bajaj Finserv a safe bet?

The stock is in a recovery phase. With strong fundamentals and sectoral tailwinds, it could deliver steady returns in the coming quarters.

Q3: Can Power Grid deliver big returns?

While not a high-growth stock, Power Grid offers stability and steady upside due to government-backed projects.

Q4: What level will Nifty test next week?

If Nifty sustains above 24,650, it could test 24,800. A breakdown below 24,300 may push it toward 24,000.

Q5: Will FIIs return to buying?

If global yields ease and India’s growth story remains strong, FIIs could gradually return, adding momentum to the rally.

The Indian stock market has shown signs of resilience by ending its six-week losing streak. While FIIs remain sellers, DIIs and retail investors continue to support the market. The Nifty remains in a tight range, and traders must watch for breakouts on either side.

Expert picks like Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj Finserv, and Power Grid offer stock-specific opportunities with attractive risk-reward setups. For long-term investors, India’s macroeconomic strength, robust earnings growth, and sectoral rotation provide confidence.

Going forward, the market’s direction will largely depend on global macro trends and FII flows, but the domestic growth story remains intact. Investors should maintain a balanced approach, focusing on quality stocks and disciplined risk management.